Does Trump do a good job 1
The numbers are truly impressive, so it was no wonder that Donald Trump immediately picked up his smartphone. "Great job market report!" He wrote in capital letters in the short message service Twitter - knowing full well that the good employment data could be of use to him on two fronts in the coming weeks: It distracts from the impeachment proceedings that the Democrats are opposing in the US Congress initiated it, and they show that the fear of many presidential advisors of a recession in the 2020 election year was arguably unfounded. A high level of employment usually ensures that people consume extensively and that the most important economic pillar thus remains intact.
According to a report by the Washington Department of Labor, the number of persons in employment outside the agricultural sector rose by 266,000 in November compared to the previous month. It was thus significantly higher than forecast by experts, even if part of the increase was due to the end of the strike at automaker General Motors going back. Most of the new jobs were in the service sector, including hospitality and healthcare. "This report is a real hammer, the employment trend has downright shattered expectations," said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, the career portal New York Times. After rising slightly in October, the unemployment rate is 3.5 percent, the lowest level in 50 years.
What Trump and his immediately cheering claqueurs at the Fox television network deliberately overlooked, however, is that the numbers are by no means so convincing in those areas in which the president is most committed. Take the manufacturing sector, for example, where the head of state has promised to bring jobs back to the United States on a large scale: after the number of employees rose by almost 500,000 in Trump's first two and a half years in office, development has stagnated for months. In some sub-areas, including automotive and mechanical engineering as well as the metalworking industry and the clothing industry, fewer people are employed than in November 2018, and the average weekly working time has fallen to its lowest level in eight years. One reason is the trade dispute between the USA and China, which affects the manufacturing sector disproportionately. The number of industrial employees is also still well below the level that was common before the financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009. The news portal is already speaking of an "end of Trump's industrial renaissance" Axios.
Most jobs were created with service providers and in the healthcare sector
The situation is similar in America's collieries, to which the president had also promised a rebirth and whose products he personally advertises as "our beautiful, clean coal". In fact, the number of employees in the coal mining industry has remained almost unchanged over the past few years, because although a few collieries that have already been closed have resumed operations, others have been closed. In many places, US coal is not competitive in terms of price alone, and from a macroeconomic point of view the sector does not play a role anyway: Of the total of almost 159 million employees in the US economy, just 53,000 work in coal mining, which is a percentage of 0.3 per thousand. The rating agency Moody's expects that utility demand for US coal will shrink by a further 50 percent by 2030. This will not only have a massive impact on the mine operators, but also on the US railroad companies, for whom coal is still the most important cargo.
And a third group of voters, who had expected a lot from Trump, also see themselves left behind by the generally good economic and employment development: the farmers. In the course of the US-Chinese customs dispute, one of the most important sales markets for soy, corn, fruit and other goods collapsed because the government in Beijing imposed import duties on many US agricultural products. The number of farm bankruptcies rose by almost a quarter year over year, and the combined debt of all farmers is expected to exceed $ 415 billion by the end of 2019.
Should Trump's political opponents rejoice, however, that the industrial workers, coal miners and farmers will turn their backs on the president in the election next November out of disappointment, this could prove to be a fallacy. In conversations with those affected, there is little evidence of general Trump frustration. Some of them voted for him in 2016 not for economic reasons anyway, but because they wanted someone to "clean up" in Washington and put an end to illegal immigration, the expansion of gay rights and other things that they consider unpleasant. Still others say they did not expect anyone to actually bring back the jobs in industry and mining that have been lost over the decades. But at least someone was interested in her once.
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